The numbers all point to a FAILED demolition job against the Dutertes

The mathematics of election and impeachment are quite simple. It really depends on the people at the end of the day; the conviction or acquittal of Vice-President Sara Duterte from the impeachment complaint filed against her. The Ensaymorons fell silent yesterday faced with the reality revealed by the survey conducted by WR Numero — that a good number of Filipinos are opposed to her Impeachment. Inday is still more trusted than President Bongbong Marcos (BBM) and she still leads the presidential race in 2028. This after the demolition job against her and her father that began in 2023. There was a disturbance in the force and it was palpable.

I riled an Ensaymoron friend who immediately whipped out the Octa survey that revealed that “36% of respondents support the Marcos Administration while 18% were pro-Duterte.” I said look at the dates. One has to be factual to be objective. Unfortunately, the Ensaymorons are bereft of logic. The word that is on every critical thinking mind is lameduck but nobody wants to say it. The president usually has momentum going into the midterm election but as the proclamation rally’s have proved, there is no momentum.

Sure the pro-administration candidates will win but if the impeachment proceedings will begin in June, each of the 24 senators will have 2028 on their minds. At the end of the day, first and foremost is their political survival. A conviction would have severe political repercussions. This would have an impact on the senators who are up for re-election in 2028.

Then there’s the Supreme Court. Should the impeachment be struck down, this gives Inday breathing room. But the sword of Damocles would still be hanging over her head since the goal is to take her out of the presidential race, permanently. She will be impeached again for sure once the one year ban has lapsed.

At this point, what’s certain is that neither side will be able to gain any ground. The administration is under the microscope for the lack of palpable economic progress. It’s all optics. The demolition of the Duterte’s will only stop when Inday isn’t a contender for 2028 anymore. Nonetheless, Manila Standard columnist Lito Banayo observes…

Unless the President dangles goodies too difficult to resist, as in the Corona conviction, these senators will wait for the opinion signs that would be blowin’ in the wind.

One factor to consider is how the former president, still commanding the loyalty of a huge number of followers, will take an adverse outcome. In Cebu, he rallied support for his ticket by stating that his daughter’s fate would depend on the numbers.

His support is hard; the President’s support base is softened continuously by economic woes he is unable to surmount.

This brings to mind hindsight on Inday’s decision to be the running mate in 2022. Obviously she wasn’t cognizant of the political realities the way her father saw it in his head. It was a marriage of convenience which was made in hell without Inday realizing it. She probably relied on her friendship with Imee Marcos and former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s (GMA’s) advise for her to run if only to prevent the possibility of a Robredo presidency.

But with 47% of the public against impeachment, the administration should also wake up to the reality that its demolition job failed. The image of the frail former president hitting the campaign trail for his candidates impacts on the public. Former President Rodrigo Duterte proved in Cebu that he can still hold a crowd captive and his emotional appeal for votes to save his daughter strikes a chord in voters. Contrast this with the video of Negros Oriental Governor Chaco Sagarbarria imploring the crowd to chant BBM and getting a very tepid response and you have an idea of the public sentiment. You can see by the look on the faces of the administration candidates that they’re in an awkward spot because it’s obvious that the president isn’t able to generate crowd enthusiasm despite his best effort.

All we can do is watch to see what the outcome will be as it’s too difficult to even speculate at this point. The only certainty at this point is the Duterte magic is not dead in their bailiwicks. It will be interesting what the reaction would be of the voters in Luzon. But if Duterte’s candidates can win in Metro Manila and pick up votes in vote-rich provinces in Region 3, 4, 5 and 6, they stand a chance of electing at least 4 senators.

Ramon Ortoll

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