The recent scandal that shook the almighty kingdom of Duterteland seems to have triggered a slew of defensive social media posts from Former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte’s (FPRRD) sycophants. As recent news coverage has shown, FPRRD’s former spokesman Atty. Harry Roque revealed that FPRRD accepted a “gentleman’s agreement” with Beijing, when he was still president, to “maintain the status quo” that neither China nor the Philippines will move to conduct any improvements in the Ayungin Shoal. This agreement effectively limited Philippine vessels to only deliver water and food to our troops stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War 2 Era Philippine ship grounded there, and not any construction materials to fortify it. Dutertards have been quick to downplay the revelation saying that there was nothing secret about the deal. Missing in the Duterte narrative is the fact that the deal FPRRD made was already a tacit surrender of our legal position in Ayungin by acknowledging China’s terms. We’ll delve more into that later.
How did we really get into all this mess? Was it because of FPRRD’s boneheaded “gentleman’s agreement”? (Quite an oxymoron as FPRRD is hardly known to be a gentleman, but I digress.) Was it because of President Bongbong Marcos Jr’s subservience to America, as Dutertards seem to be pushing in their narrative? Was it because of the late former president Noynoy Aquino’s belligerent stance against China during his term? The answer to all the questions is a ‘No’. The issue started way back after the then-called Magic 12 senators led the country to saying ‘No’ to extending the US bases renewal in the Philippines in 1991. In a nutshell, there was enough anti-American sentiment to kick the US forces out of the Philippines back then. What was the root of the anti-American sentiment? Well, it was really mostly the left’s usual anti-“Yankee Imperialism” schtick. Sure, we’ll hear about “American atrocities” from previous wars (not just the from the Philippine-American War), as if America has only contributed evil and misery to the world and that its abusive nature is like a case of herpes that simply won’t go away. But at the end of the day anti-American sentiment just boils down to nothing but the jingoistic claptrap of “Americans Bad, Filipinos Good”. The very same thing that FPRRD and his sycophants have been promoting since FPRRD rose to power and up to now.
On December 21, 1992, the Military Bases Agreement with the US was officially terminated. Without American presence a power vacuum in the area was created. The next closest emerging power back then was China and sure enough, early in February 1995, the Philippines was caught off-guard by finding out that the Chinese has taken a territory that is within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Chinese forces were found present with a Chinese flag flying over the Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef that is only around 200 kilometers away from Palawan. After the Mischief Reef invasion, another Philippine-claimed territory was invaded by China in 2012 – the Scarborough Shoal. In addition to the invasions, China also interfered with Philippine Oil exploration activities in the Reed Bank in 2011 as well as illegally built installations and artificial islands on Mischief Reef in May of 2013. Yes, this is the very same China that Sara Duterte has praised as generous to us in Mandarin and that Imee Marcos has claimed to have never attempted, in any way, to take us over.
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So now that we have essentially lost control over Mischief Reef and the Scarborough Shoal, how should we deal with the China threat regarding Ayungin and the other territories in the area where we have a claim on? To his credit, Philippine president Noynoy Aquino led the Philippines against China in an international arbitral tribunal landmark victory where the Chinese claim over almost the entire South China Sea, through its self-defined 9-dash line (which has been upgraded to 10 or perhaps even 11 now). We know that this bogus China-defined line was largely overruled by the international tribunal. However, instead of building on the legal victory of Aquino, then new president Rodrigo Duterte decided to take a different tact by using a Neville Chamberlain-like Appeasement approach. For avid students of history, we remember how former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain used such a diplomatic approach by making concessions to an aggressive foreign power (Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany) in order to avoid war. Chamberlain embraced this policy as the British people during the 1930s were desperate to avoid the slaughter of another world war (they just went through World War 1 just around a little more than 10 years prior) and that domestic issues such as the economy was deemed to be more important to focus on. But as history has shown us, the Appeasement approach was shown to be a failure because Nazi Germany’s expansionism continued, and British war engagement ended up being unavoidable. Nowadays, this Appeasement diplomatic approach is widely discredited but for some reason Duterte and the Dutertards still believe and insist that appeasing an aggressive and powerful expansionist China is the only solution to avoid a war.
So, under President Marcos’ approach of taking a principled stance of protecting our country’s national interest by working with other friendly nations that share common values and interests with us such as the United States, Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Vietnam, the EU, India, and many more, are we likely headed for war? The Dutertards seem hell-bent in making the people believe so. This is not entirely surprising as it is no secret that FPRRD and the Duterte partisans adhere to the anti-American sentiment, the very same sentiment espoused by those who kicked the Americans out of the Philippines in the early 1990s which created a power vacuum that led to our current predicament. Moreover, FPRRD and a few of the well-known Duterte sycophants are, or at least have been, beneficiaries of the graces of China. So, what is the connection between the war narrative being peddled by Duterte sycophants and the anti-American sentiments?
The Chinese Communist Party adheres to the Zhou dynasty era strategy taken from Sun Tzu’s book The Art of War called the 3 Warfares Strategy. This consists of: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare. The idea behind this strategy is to win a war without firing a single shot but by merely using three fronts.
Public Opinion Warfare
This is currently being done by shaping public opinion using the all-too common anti-American (or anti-West) sentiment prevalent among the left and Duterte supporters. It basically serves as an all-too common read meat for a pack of wolves to be excited about. Infest the discussion about Chinese encroachment and aggression by invoking a favorite boogeyman, American intervention and prodding, and the whole issue shifts from China’s encroachment and aggression to America merely using the Philippines for its own selfish interest. Then of course, once Filipinos see America as the bad guy then the old adage applies: “The enemy of my enemy, is my friend”. Before you know it, we’ll all be joining VP Sara Duterte in unison.
Psychological Warfare
China has, and continues to intimidate its competitors, using its military’s image of size and strength. They flaunt their huge naval fleet and military power to give everybody a scare. The aim, of course, is to undermine our ability to conduct combat defense and deterrence operations by shocking and demoralizing our military personnel and supporting civilian populations. But if a country’s leader is dumb enough to cower in fear just like Duterte, then China already gets a huge upper-hand. A leader projecting a submissive stance by saying: “Do you want war against China? I’ll tell you, even on the coast beach of Palawan, before you can take off, the missile of China would be there in about five or 10 minutes. It would be a massacre if I go and fight a war now. We are not yet a competent and able enemy of the other side.” Even if it is true that our military strength is no match against China’s, the projection of submissiveness and weakness from a leader affects the morale of his troops. The reason why China loves Duterte is because Duterte’s pusillanimous mindset plays perfectly well into their strategy. 
Legal Warfare
China has used, as its legal basis, its historical ownership of the South China Sea. As US Major Morgan Martin of the US Naval Institute correctly said:
The PRC’s psychological and legal warfare activities go hand in glove and are focused heavily on the South China Sea. Alleging historical ownership, China has claimed several islands in the region, ignoring protests from neighboring countries and international tribunal rulings to the contrary. The area has significant untapped oil reserves and is a major global trade route; gaining exclusive control of the South China Sea would contribute a great deal to the PRC achieving regional and global hegemony. The ways it has attempted to do so are prime examples of psychological and legal warfare in action.
The PRC initially used legal warfare in the South China Sea by appealing to international legal bodies to legitimize its territorial claims. When those bodies have rejected the claims, the PRC has branded them as illegitimate and refused to abide by their findings. This ultimately undermines the legitimacy of these bodies and decreases stability in the region, as neighboring nations become more uncertain of the legal status of the South China Sea.”
Unfortunately, the Philippines had a president from 2016 – 2022 who willingly served as China’s useful idiot by even supporting China’s sore-loser tantrum when he said: “They (Aquino administration) filed a case, we won. That paper, in real life, between nations, that paper is nothing. … Actually, in street parlance, I would tell you, ‘Give that to me? Son of a bitch, that’s just a piece of paper. I’ll throw it in the wastebasket.”
So, is President Bongbong Marcos Jr.’s approach going to lead us to a war we cannot win and where our mutual defense treaty partner, the United States will simply leave us out to twist in the wind? The Duterte sycophants seem to be going overtime in pushing for that narrative. Sure, there is always a possibility of the worst outcome, but probability is another question. How probable is an armed warfare with China be? Would it be in China’s best interest to trigger the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty should it decide to pulverize the Philippines with its powerful army and weapons? So, from dealing with a small country with an inferior armed force, what benefit will China gain if its action will escalate the situation by having a powerful nation with around 10 times more nuclear weapons than it has, enter into the mix? That is just the United States, what about our other allies that President Marcos has gained who expressed willingness to support us with our territorial defense? So far, the Philippines has the United States, the EU, Japan, Australia and about 16 other countries that have expressed support to the Philippines and the rule of law. To get into a war with the Philippines will further risk China into further isolation on the world stage. Despite its belligerence regarding its loss on the international arbitral ruling against the Philippines, it recognized that international law is not on its side! That is why it has resorted to gray-zone attacks against the Philippines to keep things from going to a full-scale war. If it really was intent on war China certainly has the capability of pulverizing the Philippines in less than a day. But it hasn’t and it likely won’t precisely because there are too many factors at play that may make things a lot riskier and a lot worse for its situation. The 3 Warfares Strategy is what it has chosen and continues to play. Unfortunately, we have FPRRD and the Duterte sycophants who seem to be acting as unwitting agents for the Chinese Communist Party to carry out at least some components of its 3 Warfare Strategy.
It is quite refreshing that we now have a president who is taking a principled stance with regards to protecting our country’s EEZ. The agreement that President Marcos Jr.’s predecessor made with China was essentially a tacit surrender of our ownership of the Ayungin Shoal. Former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio said: “President Duterte knew that without repairs, the BRP Sierra Madre would soon collapse and, thus, end our presence in Ayungin Shoal, … Yet Duterte agreed, in a concession to China, that the Philippines could only bring food and water to BRP Sierra Madre and would not bring materials to repair the Sierra Madre. … Duterte’s ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ was lopsided in favor of China… That ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ was a disguised surrender of our EEZ rights over Ayungin Shoal as it gave China veto power over our exclusive right to erect structures on Ayungin Shoal”.
Calling a spade, a spade…
LOL! Was this the same website demonizing Noynoy Aquino, Albert del Rosario, and Antonio Carpio and calling them all fools for insisting on a fight against China over sovereign rights in the South China Sea and for taking its legal case to International Court in 2016?
So what happened? In this case, Getrealphillippines owes an apology to the abovementioned names, now that BBM is using the same foreign policy as Noynoy’s.
yep. but they could have been already been bought & paid for. so much inconsistencies.
When this website was established in 2009, I thought the writers of the articles here and even most of their commentators were loyalists to Gloria Arroyo because they were mainly haters to Aquino and allies, that Aquino’s foreign policy toward China was mocked and criticized heavily here and they called it stupid because Aquino was always provoking China by not kowtowing down to their wims and caprices when it comes to the issues of South China Sea. Now I realized they are loyalists to Marcos because they are not hating Marcos similar to what they did to Aquino about the South China Sea or the old head writers did not publish anything criticizing BBM of his South China Sea stand.
They in fact love to quote Rigoberto Tiglao using his columns when it comes to South China Sea issue because Tiglao was also always criticizing Aquino during the latter’s presidency.
I thought Tiglao was also loyal to Marcos as he supported him during elections and he consistently wrote against Aquino and his allies the yellow-pink party. Now, i realized Tiglao is just a loyalist to China.
Tiglao even published an opinion column today, April 1, entitled “Marcos has taken us to the brink of a calamitous war vs. China” in which he called the foreign policy adapted by BBM from Aquino toward China as IDIOTIC.
I wonder if the webmaster of this website benignO still likes Tiglao nowadays as the former always quoted the latter in his articles here before as an attack against Aquino on South China Sea dispute.
Hi Jason and shoji,
The writers here may hold different opinions (although yes, the majority of the articles have been critical of the Yellow players in the past). I, too, was a critic of Noynoy Aquino and I also was a supporter of FPRRD. I don’t know how GRP was like back in 2009 as that was before my time (I joined in 2012). But from time to time writers do publish articles with differing opinions about issues here. I remember having a diametrically opposite view about the US (and American influence) with a GRP colleague in the past who definitely did not have a favorable view of the US (and Americans).
Anyway, as for the WPS issue, I happen to agree with PNoy and PBBM in terms of being assertive when it comes to our rights to our territory and areas within our EEZ. I do see a difference in the way PNoy has handled the WPS issue compared to how PBBM is handling it now, though. From what I remember (or at least the impression that I got was), PNoy relied too much on the US while PBBM was able to reach out to many more allies and was able to secure their commitment to support our stance. I’m sure some of my colleagues here may hold a different view and that is fine with me.
Thanks for reading!
From 2012, as you said, onward, I never saw you always published articles here. Just recently that I noticed you here.
You said you were a critic of Noynoy and a supporter of Duterte, now in your article, it looks the opposite and you appear to project Duterte as a traitor and you bravely call his supporters Dutertards. Were you not a Dutertard before? The one who called Noynoy supporters Noytard or Yellowtard?
You said you were a long time supporter of the US, but you did not publish articles during Duterte’s term supporting the US while rebuking China. You were silent and cowed. Other writers here who were too critical against Noynoy Aquino’s stance in the South China Sea don’t give a damn anymore to what is happening now in the South China Sea under Marcos term. They were caught between being hypocrites and being loyalists to Marcos.
You said Noynoy relied mostly on the US? You were wrong. Noynoy reached out to all allies during his stint. Noynoy was the one who seeked allies help particularly the European Countries, Japan, South Korea, and Australia when it comes to the issue of the South China Sea. Marcos just copied the moves of Noynoy’s nowadays.
Noynoy even bought a dozen of fighter jets from South Korea, while Duterte and Marcos didn’t take this priority seriously to improve our military capability.
When it comes to the issue of the South China Sea, Noynoy Aquino was right after all in pursuing the Philippine interests as China appeared not to compromise anything in the South China Sea even with the “gentleman’s agreement” of Duterte.
>>From 2012, as you said, onward, I never saw you always published articles here. Just recently that I noticed you here.
Yes, I started in 2012. However, I wasn’t a regular contributor at GRP. I only contributed to the site if and when I felt inspired to write about something. So far, I’ve had 82 articles that I contributed so as you can see, I barely average 7 article contributions per year. It is not surprising that my name would not be readily recognized by GRP readers. Here… click on this link https://www.getrealphilippines.com/author/hgamboa/
>>You said you were a critic of Noynoy and a supporter of Duterte, now in your article, it looks the opposite and you appear to project Duterte as a traitor and you bravely call his supporters Dutertards. Were you not a Dutertard before? The one who called Noynoy supporters Noytard or Yellowtard?
Yes, I was a critic of Noynoy, the Yellows, the Commies, and the Liberals. I was also a supporter of Duterte, even his WoD crusade especially in the beginning. I would not say I was a Dutertard but I can admit to being dumb enough to swallow the stupid idea that everything the Yellows stood for were moronic. I realize now that the Yellows do have valid points when it comes to fighting for our rights over the EEZ. I was just too consumed by my disgust over their politics (to some degree, I still am disgusted over many of their libtard policies and virtue signaling. But that is more of difference in political POV and not personhood). But yes… I did call Yellows “Noytards” and “Yellowtards” before. (You’ll likely see it from my previous articles.)
>>You said you were a long time supporter of the US, but you did not publish articles during Duterte’s term supporting the US while rebuking China. You were silent and cowed.
I think you misunderstood. I am a long-time supporter of the US but my support for America is not necessarily related to my disdain over how China is behaving towards the SCS/WPS issue. I am pro-Capitalist, personal responsibility, and limited government US Conservative leaning (which are traits of the original intent and design of the US Founding Fathers). My anti-China stance on the WPS issue is a totally separate matter.
>> Other writers here who were too critical against Noynoy Aquino’s stance in the South China Sea don’t give a damn anymore to what is happening now in the South China Sea under Marcos term. They were caught between being hypocrites and being loyalists to Marcos.
Well, I can’t speak for the other writers but I do see sense in Justice Carpio’s take on the whole hullabaloo on the SCS/WPS issue and what he thinks is the sensible (and realistic) way to neuter China’s aggression.
>>You said Noynoy relied mostly on the US? You were wrong. Noynoy reached out to all allies during his stint. Noynoy was the one who seeked allies help particularly the European Countries, Japan, South Korea, and Australia when it comes to the issue of the South China Sea. Marcos just copied the moves of Noynoy’s nowadays.
If he did (reach out to countries other than the US), I think he may not have done it effectively. From what I remember, he mostly delegated the face-to-face meetings and appeals to his people (particularly Sec. Albert Del Rosario). He probably would have done better if he gave it a more personal touch by personally flying off to meet with world leaders instead of just sending his delegates.
>>Noynoy even bought a dozen of fighter jets from South Korea, while Duterte and Marcos didn’t take this priority seriously to improve our military capability.
Well, FentaMao definitely did not do anything for our defense against China but PBBM seems to be making efforts in beefing up our military now. While Noynoy bought a dozen fighter jets from SoKor, these were basically starter jet fighters which were still no match against the more superior Chinese jets. But to Noynoy’s credit, at least he did something to show that we do not intend to simply lay down and take it in the rear from the Chinese aggressors.
>>When it comes to the issue of the South China Sea, Noynoy Aquino was right after all in pursuing the Philippine interests as China appeared not to compromise anything in the South China Sea even with the “gentleman’s agreement” of Duterte.
From what I remember hitting Noynoy with during his time was his too much saber rattling. I think PBBM, despite his clear stance against Chinese aggression, is more diplomatic than Noynoy was. Had Noynoy used the same tact, perhaps he would have had more support. But again, giving credit to where it is due – he did give us the Arbitral Tribunal win against China (which Duterte was too dumb to treat as “worthy of the waste basket”).
Wow, it’s quite a rare moment that we get to read something beyond the usual staple of narratives, friendly and favorable, to the Duterte cult.
Finally, someone from GRP, Mr. Hector Gamboa, begs to differ. Straight talk, direct and simply brilliant!
The Dutertes are not really all what they have projected themselves to be, supposedly, as leaders with strong political will, decisive, incorruptible and nationalistic.
With the recent revelations of things, they’re now exposed also as ‘political trapos’, power-hungry, indecisively weak and opportunistic.
We behold the Duterte patriarch even resorts to lies like the Yellowtards to rally up support to their selfish interest.
He’s even willing to cause it himself the separation of Mindanao from the rest of the Philippines.
He’s so power-hungry (in his VP daughter’s behalf) that he even threatens to rally the military to rise up against the duly elected and legal sitting President who’s not even halfway of his term.
Indeed, there is some truth to what benign0 wrote:
“…there is no shared aspiration amongst the “victors” in the 2022 elections to move the nation forward.”
Let’s face it. Philippines is very weak, so all you can do is file diplomatic protests and ask other countries for help. This is what you get for electing bad leaders. You deserve it.
What is their “solution” for the West Philippine Sea issue? Mandatory ROTC? That won’t help at all. If war breaks out, these politicians will be the first ones who will escape to other countries. It does make sense for people to escape if war or invasion happens though because nobody needs to die as expendable tools for a country which doesn’t care for its people because they’re required to instead of wanting to.