I still don’t give that much credence to what the surveys say and so I am basing my guesses on nothing but a lot of rough figuring at this point coupled with whatever strikes me as sensible at the moment.
Regardless of what our so called “political analysts” are saying at this point, my method for guessing at who will win as President and Vice President is as good as theirs. Unless, of course, they actually have reliable data (read that as the in-house surveys conducted for candidates) to base their analysis upon, they are all basically just talking out of their hats.
The only ones with really reliable data are those in the innermost circles of candidates and like a game of poker, they’ll hold this close to their collective chests. The only reliable thing for us to judge as an indication of how they are faring at this point are certain “tells” and that could be anything to any one.
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For me, it’s basically whichever candidate’s name I hear spoken of in ordinary conversations I overhear as I go about my day in the heart of Manila.
Currently, there are only two candidates for President that are being talked about for Presidency and it’s basically Grace Poe over Jojo Binay. Then for Vice President, people are talking about Chiz Escudero over Bongbong Marcos.
I was actually surprised that people in the heart of Tamarindville (Sampaloc) aren’t talking about Duterte or Roxas and it’s strange, given their popularity on the internet.
In the Vice Presidential race, Robredo and Cayetano don’t even get a mention unless you prod people and, mind you, it takes a bit of prodding for people to get them to think about these two other candidates.
Anyways… People are figuring Grace over Jojo simply because they think that she represents unfulfilled aspirations for a government that is truly in tune and responsive to their needs. Jojo, on the other hand, is someone they figure will have to devote a lot of time trying to fend off graft and corruption cases as well as possible impeachment complaints that will detract from actual time needed to set up his administration. That is, if Jojo doesn’t got the other route and try to set up a ploy to neutralize his enemies and whoah boy, he certainly has a lot of them.
Grace, on the other hand, is someone they see as not being on either side of the full blown fight between the old oligarchy and the new oligarchy. As fellow GRP writer ChinoF had pointed out in a comment on a previous post, and what he said is really interesting:
“I’ve been told about this book, The Outsider Advantage, that says real movers and shakers of societies are usually outsiders. They are the ones who introduce new ideas because the locals often want only the status quo, and block and progress and improvement. That’s why a change to the law I want, is to remove any requirements referring to residency, blood, etc. anything “natural,” so people like OFWs can run for office here. Really, that’s what we need. Philippine society is too hung up on the obsolete concept of blood relations as something that determines loyalty.”
Viewed from another angle, I have a tendency to describe the old oligarchy vs. new oligarchy fight more like two bands of in-bred factions going at each other in a zero-sum contest where the winner thinks he can take it all and the loser won’t let it happen.
So far, just from the looks of it, Grace isn’t an integral part of that conflict even given that some people point to so-called “ties” with Danding Cojuanco.
The way the people I eavesdrop on say it, they describe Grace as someone who isn’t “subo sa sistema” or eaten by the system or whose fortunes weren’t built through decades of feeding or benefitting from favorable government action or policies.
Thing is, when was the last time we had a president who was basically an outsider in the war of Philippine oligarchs?
I may be wrong here, but the last time that happened was when good old Steady Eddie (Fidel V. Ramos) became president.
Sure, Ramos was part of the Marcos regime but he wasn’t really part of any of the existing oligarchies and that, in part, assured people of somewhat a “level” playing field.
Of course, the question right now is… Does Grace have what it takes to tame the Philippine oligarchy and at the same time serve the interests of the common Filipino?
(That’s something I’ll discuss in my next post.)
Writer.
He raised the hands of dynasty left and right e.g. Villafuertes of Bicol. No, she simply can’t survive as she hasn’t earned the right to speak as of yet.
grace will be the saviour of this nation that has so many corrupt individuals. The person they labeled as “inexperienced” can do better in this country than these old traditional politicians.
Apparently we have a very different view of oligarchy.
Of the 5 candidates now, only Binay I can consider who was a self made oligarchy while the rest had a semblance of popularity or government service due their familial ties, Poe carrying a popular name while Santiagos parents were in a government service, judge. While Duterte and Roxas we all know come pre Edsa political families. You can also say both Binay and Santiago are self made politicians however.
I also have to disagree with Ramos. Ramos was part of the oligarchy. His father was sec of foreign affairs under Marcos, was an elective representative since 1934.
Can we also exempt the rest of the presidents who had familial ties, politicians or popular people just like what you did to Ramos? This means all our president are not part of the oligarchy.
Wala naman yang magagawa, hanggang ngawa lang yan. Maliban na lang kung patayin lahat ng empleyado ng gobyerno ngayon, kasama pamilya nila.
Grace and Chiz are investments of San Miguel Corporation.
Grace getting disqualified would be throwing a monkey wrench in SMC’s plan.
Chiz Escudero is part of the corrupt political system. He is a political opportunist. He voted for the impeachment of CJ Corona. He may have been a recipient of the Pork Barrel Bribery by Aquino.
Any candidate elected will be subject to the control of the Oligarchy; the Feudal Oligarchs; etc…Our political system, has many weaknesses, and politicians will just change, their allegiance, whoever is the winner… so “tuloy ang ligaya nila”…
Ang chismis: dahil kay BBM, pinutol na daw budget ni Mar/ Leni. Sariling kayod na sila. Ang Samar group na ang predominant force sa Pasig River, kaya ang war chest has now been made available for Poe/Chiz.
Sa usapan na yan, pinag-usapan ba nila ang magagawa nila para sa mga Tao? O, awayan lang ng magbabarkada ang election na eto, hindi naman talaga kasali mga Tao?
Wow, special mention, hehe. I have to correct myself on the title of the book I mentioned, it’s The Outsider’s Edge by Brent Taylor. On Grace, I’m not sure she’s really an outsider as some people perceive, but I understand where they’re coming from. I still uphold that suggestion to change the rules for residency and qualifications (as if they’re being enforced anyway).
Yes, what Add shared sounds juicy. My prediction, whoever sits, the band of corrupt will jump to the new admin party and continue their shenanigans with the blessing of whoever’s in power. Just like what they did in 2009-2010.
Do you have a link to the book?
Anyway, i contend that Grace is an outsider based on the assumption that she basically comes from a non-political background and is only a recent entry to politics.
Even with the endorsement of the NPC, it still doesn’t make her as deeply rooted in Philippine politics as the other contenders.
NO NEED TO TALK ABOUT GRACE POE. SHE WILL BE DISQUALIFIED. OUR HEROES WHO DIED FOR THE SAKE OF THIS COUNTRY WILL COMPLAIN FROM THEIR GRAVES ABOUT IT. OTHER COUNTRIES WILL LAUGH ABOUT IT AS WE DO NOT EVEN KNOW GRACE POE’S ANCESTRY AND STILL HE RENOUNCED HIS PHILIPPINE CITIZENSHIP.
Please help me understand this. Lol, us other countries are laughing at you know, because of Grace Poe. The USA and many other advanced countries do not have the these strict requirements to be president. We do not understand why a country that allows most of its people to work as OFW’s wants to turn around and keep them from bringing their knowledge back to the same country. This country needs to decide one way or the other what role your consider your OFW’s are they a equal part of your country or not. It appears everyone is happy with the money from Filipinos overseas, but not with them holding positions in government
Too bad the smile was on the face of the wrong man.