I think if some American blogger living in PH can come up with a post saying Secretary of Interior and Local Government Mar Roxas will win the Presidential election in 2016 purely based on professional guesswork, perhaps I can do better just by reviewing what I think I know about winning elections and Filipino voting behavior — which is just as good as relying on guesswork.
As much as we at Get Real Post have tried to needle people into raising level of political discussion, there are also people out there who are just as determined to discuss such an important election in terms of winnability and demonstrate their skill in weaving horse racing idioms along other gambling terminologies into barely readable copy.
Thing is, this is exactly the kind of political discussion that happens in an electorate that doesn’t have a good grasp of what the national issues are or should be and where there is no real opposition that can help improve the positions taken on those issues. (To get a better understanding of where I am coming from, do read “Why Filipinos Suck at Democracy”.)
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I don’t know if it has done Mar Roxas any good at all to be hailed as the winning candidate by a bookie, where the country’s electoral process is regarded as nothing more than a game where the only point is winning. If this is mind conditioning, then it might reflect how people in Roxas’ communications team think of the ordinary voters and the danger is that it perpetuates the wrong kind of thinking among new voters while reinforcing that thinking among more senior ones.
The fact that I was told that at least one of those people who might be in the Roxas messaging team plays poker just bolsters certain theories I have about why Roxas seems to be running aground, at least, in the surveys.
Nevertheless, if the 2016 Presidential elections were just about who is going to win, there is a better way of analyzing winnability and a friend of mine, a veteran of political campaign leader since 1992, points out 5 factors that will determine whether a candidate will win or lose:
Money. It is not just about the wealth that the candidate or his clan possesses, it is also about OPM or Other People’s Money, which can be direct campaign contributions or pledges of support. Moreover, what is more important than how much money a candidate has at his or her disposal, it is how much of that money is used effectively.
Message. There are a number of things that a candidate has to consider when it comes to crafting their core message. And in the Philippines, for the most part, it is usually a message that enhances the candidate’s supposed personal virtues as well as amplify their closest rival’s vices. Nope, it isn’t really about what is the best for the country or what message resonates with the aspirations of the masses.
Media. More than figuring who has more access to favorable media, it is about who has more CONTROL over media.
Materials. Having campaign materials is one thing, making sure they are distributed is another thing and making sure it is continually present/visible during the entire length of the campaign season is crucial.
Machinery. Oddly enough, a political campaign’s machinery is made up of people. These aren’t just people in your campaign headquarters, but people on the ground in various localities all over the country who are supposed to campaign for the candidate. Also, when election day comes, these are also the people who will bring voters to the precincts as well as observe the voting process.
At this point, knowing that the primary tactic in politics is always deception, any estimate about how much of the 5 factors Roxas’ possesses is pretty much guesswork for me right now until I can conduct a more thorough check with some people who are already in the field.
Writer.
Roxas doesn’t even have a prayer of a chance to win even if he cheats. He’s very much perceived as a “loser”. Even surveys that are yellow aligned have a hard time improving his spot to condition the voters. Rigging the elections for him to win is asking for more trouble.
Mar is operating under the assumption that hero worshipping a nil achiever will make him a peer. Since when did a$$ kissing catapult someone into the presidency even in this brain forsaken place.
A sign of a good leader is that they develop other leaders. Of course Noynoy was never a good leader and never will be. He was never going to cure the government of corruption. He was in Congress and the Senate long enough. He was part of the corruption. He never once lifted a finger against in pre 2010. So not sure why he was so easily believed during the campaign. Here is a little hint. The corrupt wanted that pansy as president. Just like criminals want incompetent/ compromised cops. The fact that Noynoy is waiting this long to pass the baton is more out of looking good than standing on principle. Then again, he has never stood on principle, ever.
Poor Noynoy, even on an article about Mar Roxas he is being pilloried. And for what, for running the country correctly?
Noynoy never a good leader and never will be? Fine. It’s irrelevant anyway. What we need is a good administrator. If you still searching for a ‘good leader’ up to now, you are lost my friend.
You’re missing the point: Noynoy, indeed, is not a “good leader” to begin with. You’re just delusional.
Incompetence, blunders, and blame games is what defines Noynoy. And sir, you’re just totally blind about that fact.
Congratulations, son. You just went FULL RETARD with what you wrote.
WinterSoldier, I did not miss any point you just got lost in the conversation. Big time!
One, I did not argue about the good leader angle because, like I said, it was irrelevant. Two, Mar Roxas was the subject of this article. Gogs, confused you, hence, you found your self in your favorite issue: Noynoy.
Enjoy what you are doing. Afterwards maybe you can come back to Mar Roxas. : )
Says the noytard who always believe on his retarded pwesident’s “hallelujahs”. Are you noytards really THAT dumb ever since you’re a sperm cell to realize his sheer incompetence?
Hey jameboy, are you always so stupid or is today a special occasion?
Jim DiGriz, can’t you argue your point without sounding uncivilized bully?
jameboy,
What makes you say that Noynoy is running the country correctly?
According to you, what the country needs is a good administrator. Explain why we should be looking for an administrator and not a leader.
Kthnxbye. 😛
Amir Al Bahr, you think Noynoy is running the country now the way Erap and Gloria did during their watch?
(I’m sorry, this is Mar’s corner but I just have to address the point you raised.)
With regard to leader, I really think that we should focus more on administrator angle of governance. We have a twisted conception of a leader. We tend to hero-worship a leader. We do not focus on his responsibilities but we tend to magnify his power; his influence; his dictates, among others. It’s all about authority than direction.
1) Mar worships Noynoy. He told Romualdez that a year ago. He was the only one to put down the term “Noynoying”. He shows up with Noynoy at the scenes of crimes like some glorified hood ornament. Yet like an admirer who will never be “THE boyfriend” there is lack of public acknowledgement that he is the one.
2) If Noynoy should not be in the picture why does the press corps keep teasing the Noynoy endorsement??
3) If its not about Noynoy then why is Mar even mentioning his BFF’s “Daang Matuwid”? Even if it it doesn’t exist he wants to ride on the coattails of its perceived value. Value only morons give it.
4) Silly me , expecting the president of the nation to be a good leader. It seems mommy dying is plenty qualification. That’s the problem with necro politics. It is hard to teach. That is why Malacanang keeps telling the public imbecile Noynoy is “popular”.
I am not the one lost you are. You are acting like Noynoy staring into the baby blues of Tony Trillanes.
Perhaps, Roxas can do another “Three Stooges” movie political stunt…We need another “round of Laughter”.
It is really amusing, what these Presidential aspirants are doing…anyway, we elected a mentally retarded President…Maybe, a “Mongolian Idiot” President might be elected this time..the cycle will go on and on and on…like a circle in a spiral…
Well,a lot of comments are against the present administration.im not pro Pnoy but as a citizen i could see the difference between then and now in our governement system,nobody can totally eliminate corruption but atleast the present administration has taken a step to hasten a problem that has been a burden to our system,now so much of your negativity over the present administration let me ask you as learned individuals what have you done to help ressolve this issues in our country?well,i guess its either you are against the present administration because you yourselves are corrupt or you are just one of the many BOBOTANTE in this country cos nowadays in philippine politics the sad truth is if you want to win as president you need to have allies or candidates in the countryside who have the three G’s and thats GUNS,GOLD and GOONS.
You are right , Tyrone I wonder why lots of our country men are blinded with negative eyes. Wow ! Filipinos ! So easily say a lot of bad words and point fingers , let us look at ourselves , did we contribute a bit to make our country worth living?
Here, we are blogging…to inform people, how incompetent and corrupt the leaders, they are electing; and how they are being deceived…we are Catalysts for Change…this is every sensible bloggers’ contribution to their country…
So far two Idiot Yellow Zombies spotted he he. Fail-lipines is being Hostaged by a Mentally disturbed leader but nobody cares instead some Zombies are willing victims at a right price. Lucky those Australian victims were rescued by competent minded Police Organization.
That American’s blog post was a load of hogwash anyway. It used a gambling motif to explain things. And looking at an election through the lens of “gambling” is the problem to begin with.
Whether he becomes president or not, it won’t change anything. It’s a government run like hell by Filipinos who is incapable of self-governance which is in a forever sorry state of abnormal calamity. The ones I thought who can bring change, never won in the election. Those that actually did win, I was proven wrong, for they sold out as well. I have a stupid question. What if money is never involved in politics? Perhaps nobody would even care to run.
I have never subscribed to the theory that political power flows from the barrel of a gun.
But it definitely does.